I answered a question in linkedin on the 22nd October 2008, where I predicted that Dollar would loose value to Euro in the near future.
It's time to do the math.
22nd Oct 2008 - 1 Dollar = 0,7786 Euro
26th Nov 2009 - 1 Dollar = 0,6635 Euro
So, Dollar devaluated to Euro 15% in the last 13 months
Click here to see this question on linkedin forum.
So, in 2008, I recommended a "Great Deal" to India, as you can read bellow.
The question was:
Would it be a good strategy for India to borrow trillions(or whatever is available) of dollars?
And my answer was:
It could be a great move if:
- India borrow in Dollars
- Buy immediately another solid currency as “Euros” with those borrowed Dollars
- And by keeping the original debt in Dollars, is expected that Debt will have a value decrease automatically if India previously converted those financial assets to another currency as “Euro”.
Note that although European Central Bank also pumped some millions of Euros to the market, it wasn’t even close of the sum that American Federal Reserve pumped into the market, so it is expected that Dollar depreciate more to the Euro.
To all Americans that read this, Dollar depreciation also could bring good news for you.
Although the goods that America imports are going to be more expensive, your products made in America will look cheaper to the rest of the world, and so is expected a increase in your exports, boosting American Economy.
However there is a great risk that with dollar depreciation, America Demand worldwide will decrease even more and that could affect other economies that are dependant of their exports to the US, creating a “Domino effect” of recession worldwide.
In my opinion, with globalization, fewer countries are exclusively dependant of one country to export their goods, and so, with the actual economic scenario almost all countries will suffer a little with America demand decrease, but only a few countries will suffer a lot, and probably that will not generate a “Domino effect”.
2009-11-24
Should the Government Increase the Minimum Wage? Why or why not?
Increasing the minimum wage is a popular political policy that is 95% financially supported by the private sector, because usually, the minimum wage employees work in the private sector. So, it can be an evil mean of government propaganda (government receives appreciation from the electors but it is the private sector that pays the bill).
There are arguments in favour and against of this kind of policy.
In favour:
- Many political deciders and some “left wing” economists believe that corporations are always looking to exploit the employees, specially the less skilled employees, which have less job options, therefore even with big profits, corporations don’t care enough by those employees in the bottom of the structure.
- By increasing some people’s income, it will have a good effect on consumption increase, therefore stimulating the economy.
Against:
- Increasing the minimum wage will affect much more the smaller companies than the big ones. And smaller companies are already under pressure by companies from other countries with cheaper labour costs. It is expected that some smaller companies cannot afford the extra cost and will loose competitiveness in the market, and could even close their doors. The final result of minimum wage increase could be unemployment increase, therefore contributes negatively to the economy, because it will generate less consumption and increase government welfare costs with unemployed people.
My opinion:
- Both arguments have merit, therefore it is a question of when is more appropriate to increase the minimum wage, achieving the purpose of the policy with minimum effects on unemployment.
The answer of "when" depends of each country economic status, but surely that minimum wage increase is a bad policy during an economic downturn, because it will contribute even more for the downhill.
There are arguments in favour and against of this kind of policy.
In favour:
- Many political deciders and some “left wing” economists believe that corporations are always looking to exploit the employees, specially the less skilled employees, which have less job options, therefore even with big profits, corporations don’t care enough by those employees in the bottom of the structure.
- By increasing some people’s income, it will have a good effect on consumption increase, therefore stimulating the economy.
Against:
- Increasing the minimum wage will affect much more the smaller companies than the big ones. And smaller companies are already under pressure by companies from other countries with cheaper labour costs. It is expected that some smaller companies cannot afford the extra cost and will loose competitiveness in the market, and could even close their doors. The final result of minimum wage increase could be unemployment increase, therefore contributes negatively to the economy, because it will generate less consumption and increase government welfare costs with unemployed people.
My opinion:
- Both arguments have merit, therefore it is a question of when is more appropriate to increase the minimum wage, achieving the purpose of the policy with minimum effects on unemployment.
The answer of "when" depends of each country economic status, but surely that minimum wage increase is a bad policy during an economic downturn, because it will contribute even more for the downhill.
2009-11-07
Keynesian school of thought
The question on linkedin forum was:While solving the current Macroeconomic problems, Keynesian school of thought has gained relevance in recent times. Does this spell an end to the New Classical school of thought which essentially relies on inherent forces in Market to play themselves out?
My answer:
Keynesian school of though has gained relevance, especially with the plans to “rescue” the world economy by U.S. president and the others G20 leaders.
Keynesian policies (increasing the public sector in the market by government investment and monetary growth) were successful in the past – F.D. Roosevelt policies during the Great Depression (1930’s).
But, those policies have not been successful in the crisis of the 1973-75.
Therefore, some economists believe (including me) that F.D. Roosevelt policies were appropriate in the 30’s, but those policies alone aren’t enough to solve the 2008 economic crisis, because:
- The causes of the crisis of the 30’s are not the same of 2008 crisis.
- The economic context is different. When F.D. Roosevelt invested in new highways or new railway tracks in the 30’s, that investment boosted the U.S. economy, because almost all jobs generated by those investments were absorbed by U.S. residents, and almost all industrial production and technological development was absorbed by U.S. companies with factories in the U.S. soil. Similar policies nowadays will result that generated jobs will be partially absorbed by labor from emigration, and a big stake of the industrial production will be imported from other countries, therefore, the current unemployment rate will not decrease as much as expected, and the national industrial production will not increase as much as predicted. So, U.S. investment in transports infrastructures like highways and railway tracks will boost U.S. economy, but not as much as in the 30’s (not even close), and this happens in the same way with other public investments in the other sectors, like energy for example.
I think that some Government intervention (inspired in Keynesian policies) is necessary to guarantee the market stabilization and restoring confidence, but, the guidelines to get back on sustained economic growth are:
- Regulate the markets to avoid speculation bubbles that resulted in the 2008 crisis. - Policies that attract more private investment in the economy.
- Policies to attract foreign investment in national soil.
- Policies that enable national companies to export more.
Market regulation can be defined by the G20, but the other policies mentioned will vary and will depend on each country economic characteristics.
My answer:
Keynesian school of though has gained relevance, especially with the plans to “rescue” the world economy by U.S. president and the others G20 leaders.
Keynesian policies (increasing the public sector in the market by government investment and monetary growth) were successful in the past – F.D. Roosevelt policies during the Great Depression (1930’s).
But, those policies have not been successful in the crisis of the 1973-75.
Therefore, some economists believe (including me) that F.D. Roosevelt policies were appropriate in the 30’s, but those policies alone aren’t enough to solve the 2008 economic crisis, because:
- The causes of the crisis of the 30’s are not the same of 2008 crisis.
- The economic context is different. When F.D. Roosevelt invested in new highways or new railway tracks in the 30’s, that investment boosted the U.S. economy, because almost all jobs generated by those investments were absorbed by U.S. residents, and almost all industrial production and technological development was absorbed by U.S. companies with factories in the U.S. soil. Similar policies nowadays will result that generated jobs will be partially absorbed by labor from emigration, and a big stake of the industrial production will be imported from other countries, therefore, the current unemployment rate will not decrease as much as expected, and the national industrial production will not increase as much as predicted. So, U.S. investment in transports infrastructures like highways and railway tracks will boost U.S. economy, but not as much as in the 30’s (not even close), and this happens in the same way with other public investments in the other sectors, like energy for example.
I think that some Government intervention (inspired in Keynesian policies) is necessary to guarantee the market stabilization and restoring confidence, but, the guidelines to get back on sustained economic growth are:
- Regulate the markets to avoid speculation bubbles that resulted in the 2008 crisis. - Policies that attract more private investment in the economy.
- Policies to attract foreign investment in national soil.
- Policies that enable national companies to export more.
Market regulation can be defined by the G20, but the other policies mentioned will vary and will depend on each country economic characteristics.
2009-08-09
2009-08-06
Atelier Augusta – Decoração de Interiores
Checkout this website.
Atelier Augusta – Decoração e Design de Interiores
http://www.atelieraugusta.com/
This is a good example of a great website (it is an Interior Design website):
- Good Image and Simple Web Navigation
Atelier Augusta – Decoração e Design de Interiores
http://www.atelieraugusta.com/
This is a good example of a great website (it is an Interior Design website):
- Good Image and Simple Web Navigation
2009-04-22
2009-04-02
1950's Pepsi Commercial
December 13th of 1950. The first appearance on TV of the young James Dean. James is the guy who puts the money into the piano/jukebox in this Pepsi TV ad.
2009-04-01
2009-03-31
The First McDonalds Commercial
TV weatherman Willard Scott was Ronald McDonald's creator. That's him on the video.
2009-03-29
2008-09-28
What measures should small businesses take to weather this economic downturn?
I believe that the answer for small and also to bigger businesses is:
1) Increase their Market Orientation skills
2) Review their Costs Structure
1)Increase their Market Orientation skills
Many businesses fail to acknowledge of where the market is heading, and also don’t realize that economy is not frozen in time, and the value bubbles through the Production->Market Chain are constantly changing result of macro and micro factors.
So, before investing, Managers should analyze better if their expectations meets the market trend.
2) Review their Costs Structure
Considering two types of costs:
Variable costs – Which increase or decrease, according to the increase or decrease of business volume (or in another word, of “sales”)
Fixed costs – Which remain the same, even if the business volume decrease.
Companies usually increase their fixed costs, when the “economic weather” is good, and forget that all economies evolve in cycles, and economic storms will happen.
Like Romans use to say, “In time of peace, we prepare for war”, in economics, the sentence is also applied as “in time of good economic periods, we should prepare for harsh economic periods.”
So, all businesses should invest more in solutions (human, technological, infrastructure) that will allow accomplishing two goals:
a) Increase their performance and efficiency.
b) Decrease the weight of fixed costs, on the company cost structure. By doing that, companies will perform better with “good economic weather” and will cruise through “economic storms”.
1) Increase their Market Orientation skills
2) Review their Costs Structure
1)Increase their Market Orientation skills
Many businesses fail to acknowledge of where the market is heading, and also don’t realize that economy is not frozen in time, and the value bubbles through the Production->Market Chain are constantly changing result of macro and micro factors.
So, before investing, Managers should analyze better if their expectations meets the market trend.
2) Review their Costs Structure
Considering two types of costs:
Variable costs – Which increase or decrease, according to the increase or decrease of business volume (or in another word, of “sales”)
Fixed costs – Which remain the same, even if the business volume decrease.
Companies usually increase their fixed costs, when the “economic weather” is good, and forget that all economies evolve in cycles, and economic storms will happen.
Like Romans use to say, “In time of peace, we prepare for war”, in economics, the sentence is also applied as “in time of good economic periods, we should prepare for harsh economic periods.”
So, all businesses should invest more in solutions (human, technological, infrastructure) that will allow accomplishing two goals:
a) Increase their performance and efficiency.
b) Decrease the weight of fixed costs, on the company cost structure. By doing that, companies will perform better with “good economic weather” and will cruise through “economic storms”.
2008-06-25
How to make a successful advertising campaign?
An advertising campaign that is successful has followed for sure at least one of these guidelines.
- Huge impact through an ad which has a lot of creativity allowing to invest less in media coverage.
- High intensity in the media, which requests a great budget investment.
- Find an accurate mix of creativity and media pressure to push the ad.
So, if you have a limited budget, creativity is the key for your success and if you have a huge budget, a good basic ad could be enough, but as everybody knows, huge budgets are hard to find.
Those are general rules, however specific characteristics of each advertising campaign target, should be taken in consideration as well, especially when choosing the campaign channels to advertise (TV vs. Radio vs. Magazines and others).
Although the guidelines mentioned are very simple, it is very hard to successfully accomplish one of them.
- Huge impact through an ad which has a lot of creativity allowing to invest less in media coverage.
- By capturing immediately the audience attention, through creativity impact.
- By creating word of mouth between the audience.
- High intensity in the media, which requests a great budget investment.
- By repeating the same message over and over again, it eventually will stick on the audience mind.
- Find an accurate mix of creativity and media pressure to push the ad.
- This is a grey area, where is hard to be successful, because this perfect mix of creativity vs. media intensity, isn't always the same as it depends of the market targeted. So in this case, the contribution and know-how of a market expert could be decisive to achieve a successful ad.
So, if you have a limited budget, creativity is the key for your success and if you have a huge budget, a good basic ad could be enough, but as everybody knows, huge budgets are hard to find.
Those are general rules, however specific characteristics of each advertising campaign target, should be taken in consideration as well, especially when choosing the campaign channels to advertise (TV vs. Radio vs. Magazines and others).
Although the guidelines mentioned are very simple, it is very hard to successfully accomplish one of them.
2008-05-21
Price as a measure of quality?
First perspective: – Reality
If it is more expensive is it better?
Not always, it’s easy to find products that are similar and have different prices, like commodities as bleach. Bleach is basically the same; however you find different brands with different prices.
But, it’s common knowledge that usually better products and better services tend to cost more in production and providing (better materials or better human resources tend to cost more).
Second perspective: – Perception
Customers make associations and define the brand positioning according to different factors, and one of those is the Price.
Usually, customers have limited knowledge about the service and product they intend to buy, even if the information is available, most customers don’t expend must time researching for more information about products like soap, toothpaste or others.
So, most customers tend to make a mental shortcut to optimize their time, and associate Price with quality, assuming that if it is more expensive, it’s better.
If it is more expensive is it better?
Not always, it’s easy to find products that are similar and have different prices, like commodities as bleach. Bleach is basically the same; however you find different brands with different prices.
But, it’s common knowledge that usually better products and better services tend to cost more in production and providing (better materials or better human resources tend to cost more).
Second perspective: – Perception
Customers make associations and define the brand positioning according to different factors, and one of those is the Price.
Usually, customers have limited knowledge about the service and product they intend to buy, even if the information is available, most customers don’t expend must time researching for more information about products like soap, toothpaste or others.
So, most customers tend to make a mental shortcut to optimize their time, and associate Price with quality, assuming that if it is more expensive, it’s better.
2008-05-17
What effect rebuilding the U.S. infrastructure will have on the U.S. economy?
The effect of rebuilding will be positive in U.S. Economy, however the effect will not be as huge as most think.
This type of economic strategy was developed by Keynes that defended the interventionism role of the government in the economy. As you all know the U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, applied Keynes strategy also known as “New Deal” between 1933 and 1937 with the purpose of recovering U.S. Economy following the stock market crash in 1929.
The “New Deal” in short terms was a government investment plan to reduce and control agriculture production, regulate the financial markets and specially, introducing a huge government investment in public infrastructures. As you all probably know FDR’s “New Deal” was a success.
However in the 70’s following the world economic crisis originated by the oil embargo to the U.S. and to some European countries, similar strategies of the “New Deal” were implemented in the U.S. and in Europe, but this time without success. It was the end of the magic formula to recover economies.
So, we learn from the past that:
- Government investment in infrastructures stimulates positively the economies.
- Full economic recovery usually depends of more factors that only government investment.
- Before a strategy implementation, it is mandatory to analyze the economy and identify the origin and weak spots of the economy, to design an economic strategy with chances of success.
This type of economic strategy was developed by Keynes that defended the interventionism role of the government in the economy. As you all know the U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, applied Keynes strategy also known as “New Deal” between 1933 and 1937 with the purpose of recovering U.S. Economy following the stock market crash in 1929.
The “New Deal” in short terms was a government investment plan to reduce and control agriculture production, regulate the financial markets and specially, introducing a huge government investment in public infrastructures. As you all probably know FDR’s “New Deal” was a success.
However in the 70’s following the world economic crisis originated by the oil embargo to the U.S. and to some European countries, similar strategies of the “New Deal” were implemented in the U.S. and in Europe, but this time without success. It was the end of the magic formula to recover economies.
So, we learn from the past that:
- Government investment in infrastructures stimulates positively the economies.
- Full economic recovery usually depends of more factors that only government investment.
- Before a strategy implementation, it is mandatory to analyze the economy and identify the origin and weak spots of the economy, to design an economic strategy with chances of success.
2008-04-23
What will be the next "big thing" in direct marketing?
The next big thing will be Direct Marketing by request.
How?
By the development of interfaces that will allow customers to request more information about a product or service when they see an ad commercial on TV or on another media channel.
To visualize what I’m describing, I’ll give you an example:
Imagine that you are in your living room watching TV, commercials are on, and you see an ad about a product or service that you are interested in.
You will be able to request to be contacted immediately about that product or service by a click in your remote control.
The contact will be made or by video call through your TV, or through your phone if you are pre-registered in this service.
How?
By the development of interfaces that will allow customers to request more information about a product or service when they see an ad commercial on TV or on another media channel.
To visualize what I’m describing, I’ll give you an example:
Imagine that you are in your living room watching TV, commercials are on, and you see an ad about a product or service that you are interested in.
You will be able to request to be contacted immediately about that product or service by a click in your remote control.
The contact will be made or by video call through your TV, or through your phone if you are pre-registered in this service.
2008-04-17
Sales Techniques: Answering a question with a question?
If you are consider answering a question with a question as a technique to avoid tough questions that will lead to a failure, because usually that intention is perceived by the customer.
However if you answer a question with a question with the purpose to bring to discussion other relevant factors that favor you, which the customer isn’t considering in that moment, by doing that you increase your chances of success.
One of many classic examples:
Question: Why is this automobile so expensive?
Bad answer: This is a good automobile, who cares about the money?
Good answer: This automobile pollutes less, if you care about the environment and with the future of your grandchildren, this automobile isn’t expensive, or is it?
2008-03-31
Is a marketeer a sales person?
No. However a marketeer that doesn’t know how to sell isn’t a marketeer.
Why?
In a competitive market, the ability to present your product/service in a most appealing way, giving all the best tools to your sales personal, can make the difference.
And, to do that successfully, the knowledge of “How to sell” is irreplaceable.
Why?
In a competitive market, the ability to present your product/service in a most appealing way, giving all the best tools to your sales personal, can make the difference.
And, to do that successfully, the knowledge of “How to sell” is irreplaceable.
2008-03-26
Consumers Behaviour Tip
Sometimes consumer preferences are not revealed by questioning.
The best way to really acknowledge consumer behaviour is to submit consumers to a real test, which they don’t know what is being tested.
Example:
The majority of people say that prefer the colour blue.
However, when confronted with two similar products, one with blue package and other with red package, the majority of people are most attracted to the red one.
The best way to really acknowledge consumer behaviour is to submit consumers to a real test, which they don’t know what is being tested.
Example:
The majority of people say that prefer the colour blue.
However, when confronted with two similar products, one with blue package and other with red package, the majority of people are most attracted to the red one.
2008-03-22
Superbowl Ads
The Superbowl ads are played in the most expensive TV airtime in the world.
So, companies try to make the best ads…
All 2008 Superbowl Ads:
So, companies try to make the best ads…
All 2008 Superbowl Ads:
What is the marketing formula to the Youth segment?
If you intend to make a campaign targeted to the Youth segment, it is a mistake to look in to the past.
The Youth segment is all about trends.
You need to listen teens directly and understand what they are responding to now.
Remember that teens focus shifts very fast, so what was trendy yesterday, could be boring for them today.
My point is that, in Youth segment the best formula is not using a formula.
The marketing should flow with the trends and understand what teens want in that short period of time.
The common mistakes are engaging in old formulas, and look to teens through an adult point of view.
The challenges of this segment are looking to teens through a teen point of view, and staying a second ahead of the new trends.
The Youth segment is all about trends.
You need to listen teens directly and understand what they are responding to now.
Remember that teens focus shifts very fast, so what was trendy yesterday, could be boring for them today.
My point is that, in Youth segment the best formula is not using a formula.
The marketing should flow with the trends and understand what teens want in that short period of time.
The common mistakes are engaging in old formulas, and look to teens through an adult point of view.
The challenges of this segment are looking to teens through a teen point of view, and staying a second ahead of the new trends.
How do you define a successful ad campaign?
Setting the goals is the first step of any ad campaign.
Different industries, different markets (different countries or sometimes different regions) and different target audiences, will affect the ad campaign goals.
Usually, there are two types of goals:
- Image projection goals - like brand acknowledgment, brand loyalty, brand image association and brand positioning.
- Operational goals – like sales increase, retaining actual customers, gaining new customers, pitching for a recently launched product, and others which may vary according to the industry.
Image projection goals, are measured when the ad campaign ends, and it is measured with market research (like phone surveys or other techniques).
Operation goals are measured as well when the ad campaign is terminated, and it is measured with internal operational data.
Note 1: Not all ad campaigns target sales increase. Example: ad campaigns made by non profit, or social awareness organizations.
Note 2: Ad campaigns can have one or multiple goals, but has more chance to be successful if it narrows the list to fewer goals, because the message can be conveyed more clearly.
So, it is a successful campaign if it achieves the goals set at the beginning of the process.
Different industries, different markets (different countries or sometimes different regions) and different target audiences, will affect the ad campaign goals.
Usually, there are two types of goals:
- Image projection goals - like brand acknowledgment, brand loyalty, brand image association and brand positioning.
- Operational goals – like sales increase, retaining actual customers, gaining new customers, pitching for a recently launched product, and others which may vary according to the industry.
Image projection goals, are measured when the ad campaign ends, and it is measured with market research (like phone surveys or other techniques).
Operation goals are measured as well when the ad campaign is terminated, and it is measured with internal operational data.
Note 1: Not all ad campaigns target sales increase. Example: ad campaigns made by non profit, or social awareness organizations.
Note 2: Ad campaigns can have one or multiple goals, but has more chance to be successful if it narrows the list to fewer goals, because the message can be conveyed more clearly.
So, it is a successful campaign if it achieves the goals set at the beginning of the process.
Why should I matter about Brand Loyalty?
Brand loyalty is very important, because increases the brand value, and by doing so allows to set higher prices.
Imagine a market without brands, there you will find a market where the competition is only made by setting smaller prices, and by that the risk of destroying market value is high.
Pricing is the most sensible item in marketing, because projects your image and positioning, defines your profit margins and in the end defines the company sustainability.
So, why brand loyalty is so important to pricing? Increasing brand value by acknowledgment, image associations, attractiveness and brand loyalty, will permit to set higher prices, therefore higher margins and in the end, higher profits.
Besides that, is common knowledge that in almost all industries is cheaper to increase sales through actual customers, than invest to reach new customers.
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